Subscribe   to the Global Money Trends newsletter, published every Friday afternoon, after the NYSE close, with the latest updates, analysis, and Predictions of the (1) top Stock markets around the world, (2) Commodities - crude oil, coal, gold, base metals, and key Indexes, (3) Foreign currencies, - Australian dollar, Brazil Real, Chinese Yuan, the Euro, Japanese yen, Canadian $, and Mexican peso, etc (4) G-7 global bond markets and key central bank lending rates. 

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Economic Analysis and Charts of Global Markets, by Gary Dorsch

The Mystery behind the Parabolic Yield Curve, June 10

How should traders interpret the shape of the US Treasury’s yield curve, which has gone parabolic, steepening to its highest level since 2004? In Australia, the Treasury yield curve is at its widest in history. The steepening of the US Treasury yield curve is one of the great mysteries in the marketplace today, and an anomaly, since such a wide spread would normally be associated with a V-shaped recovery for the US-economy.

US-Dollar headed for a Major Crash
The United States has become dangerously dependent upon the whims of foreign investors, to help finance its massive budget deficits. If bond or currency traders detect that big investors in US-government bonds, - such as China, Japan, OPEC, Russia, and Brazil, have ceased to buy US Treasury debt, or worse yet, are becoming net sellers, it could spark a sharp slide in US-Treasury notes, sending yields sharply higher, and ignite a free-fall in the US-dollar.

"Green Shoots" Sprouting in Global Markets, May 5
An eight-week-long upturn in European, Japanese, US and emerging stock markets since March 10th has been dubbed the “Green Shoots” Rally, - signaling the initial stages of a recovery in the battered global economy,and the rocky road to recovery lies ahead.

New Bubbles Brewing Across Shanghai and Wall Street, April 14

Beijing is busy inflating a massive bubble, - with the ruling Politburo ordering its state-owned banks to lend yuan aggressively. Chinese banks extended 4.6-trillion yuan, ($585-billion), in local currency loans in the first quarter, larger in size than Beijing’s 4-trillion fiscal spending plans. In turn, explosive lending in China has fueled the explosive expansion of the Chinese M2 money supply, now standing +25.5% higher than a year ago. Much of this money is funneled into Shanghai equities and the property markets, thereby inflating prices.

Speculators Returning to Commodities, Aussie & Canadian $'s, April 4
There are times when it pays to be a contrarian, to think outside-the-box, to bet against the conventional wisdom of the crowd, and ignore the chatter of the media. Usually at key turning points, - the beginning of new market trends, the fundamentals do not explain the behavior of the market. It is at these critical junctures, where sudden shifts in price trends can occur, - and big percentage gains or losses are registered.

To view more articles click on Archive

Global Money Trends
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Every Monday and Wednesday, Global Money Trends posts Audio Broadcasts, for subscribers, with the latest news and analysis moving global commodity and money markets.

June 30th, Edition, - Overdosing on "Quantitative Easing" is eroding the value of the US-dollar and intensifying inflation fears. If foreign investors stop buying US Treasury debt, without even dumping their current holdings, US bond yields could jump higher and the dollar could plunge.

The Aussie dollar’s 10-cent rally to around 81-US-cents over the past two-months has been tied-into rising commodity prices.

It’s important to know whether the Chinese stock markets are in bubble territory, because many other commodity and stock markets are influenced by the Shanghai red-chips.


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Are Shanghai Red-chips in Bubble Territory?
Updated11:35 AM, Jul- 1, Wed
It’s important to know whether the Chinese stock markets are in bubble territory, because so many other commodity and stock markets are influenced by the Shanghai red-chips. One popular tool to measure overvaluation, is the China A /H share Premium Index, which compares the price of sixty dually listed mainland Chinese shares, traded in both Hong Kong (H-shares), and Shanghai (A) shares. In January 2008 for instance, Shanghai red-chip “A” shares traded at 195% above the same company shares in Hong Kong – known as H-shares. Tight foreign exchange controls prevents arbitrage between the two wildly different prices, in which traders would buy cheaper shares in Hong Kong and sell more expensive in Shanghai simultaneously, to earn risk free profits. Much of the implosion of the Shanghai stock market in 2008 was linked to the massive erosion of the A/H premium, and less due to outside influences.
Fed´s Experiment with Nuclear "QE" Backfires
Updated11:29 AM, Jul- 1, Wed
With the yield on the US Treasury’s 10-year note hitting the psychological 4% level, June 3rd, Fed chief Ben "Bubbles" Bernanke warned Congress that large US- budget deficits would threaten financial stability and the government couldn’t continue indefinitely to borrow at the current rate to finance the shortfall. “Unless we demonstrate a strong commitment to fiscal sustainability in the longer term, we will have neither financial stability nor healthy economic growth. Maintaining the confidence of the financial markets requires that we, as a nation, begin planning now for the restoration of fiscal balance,” he warned. Bernanke learned a bitter lesson. Printing money to monetize debt inflames inflation fears and leads to higher bond yields. Conversely, by shutting-off the printing machine, the Fed can knock bond yields lower. Foreigners now hold nearly 50% of the US-government’s publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their future purchases of US Treasury debt, without even dumping their current holdings, US bond yields could jump higher and the dollar could plunge.
Japanese Yen Tracking Interest rates
Updated11:59 AM, Jul- 1, Wed
Historically, the direction of the US$ versus the yen has been closely correlated with the direction of the yield spread between US and Japanese government notes. In turn, the Nikkei tracks trends in the yen/ US$ exchange rate. A year ago, the yield on the US Treasury’s 2-year note was +200-basis points higher than Japan’s 2-year note. Since then, the US-dollar’s interest rate advantage has shrunk to +80-basis points, undermining the dollar from 108-yen to around 95.5-yen today. On June 3rd, Fed chief Bernanke was forced to rule out further monetization of Treasury debt on June 3rd, in order to prevent the dollar from falling below 94-yen, the lower-end of its trading range, with resistance established at 100-yen.
Archived Comments:
Are Shanghai Red-chips in Bubble Territory? | | Fed´s Experiment with Nuclear "QE" Backfires | | Japanese Yen Tracking Interest rates

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